Is "The Big One" on the Way?

Does Cape Cod have a hurricane out there with its name on it? Experts could say this could be year it does!

What does hurricane season on Cape Cod look like this year?

02 AUGUST 2024 — EASTHAM, MA — Already this season Hurricane Beryl devastated the Caribbean, ran roughshod over Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula and shut down power to millions in southeast Texas.  Weather watchers have been continuously eyeing potential storm formations. Even before the season ramped up, experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 17 to 25 named storms, far more than the 14 in an average year. So it it true? Is the the year for the next "Big One" on Cape Cod?

Danielle and Matt Noyes, well-known meteorologists and co-founders of weather company 1° Outside, agree that the science says it could be. They point to weather activity patterns - some of which eerily mirror 1938 patterns - as harbingers of a storm-filled season.

What would a big hurricane mean to Cape Cod?

The scale of damage a category 3 or stronger hurricane would cause isn’t just theoretical conversation. Storms of this size have hit Cape Cod in the past - including the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, a storm that Matt Noyes says still sets the benchmark for damage.

With greater than 150 mile per hour winds, the storm snapped half of all the white pine trees in New Hampshire into toothpicks as it pummeled, flattened, and flooded New England with a storm surge in excess of 20 feet.  Those extremely strong areas of Atlantic high pressure, heat, and salt water showing up right now turn out to be the same combination that created this last "storm of the century."

And now, says Noyes, factor in massive development, population growth, and built infrastructure we have today ... not to mention the increased sea level and water temperatures driven by climate change ... and the potential damage grows exponentially from even a less severe hurricane.

What can we do about hurricanes?

More recent "big" storms did huge damage too - but their power paled in comparison to what could ... and has ... happened in the past.  Chip Reilly, Barnstable County Emergency Preparedness Director, says preparation matters. Even the more typical Nor'easter, winter blizzard, or plain old powerful wind storm requires preparation.

His organization coordinates the Barnstable County Regional Emergency Preparedness Committee (BCREPC) ,  the regional response structure for hurricanes and other disasters. One fire and one police chief from the region chair the group, which brings together every imaginable response-related organization into a coordinated unit to respond to events like hurricanes.

Reilly encourages everyone to, first, stay aware about the weather as well as having an emergency kit ready. For older people especially, he says, knowing one's medications and having a supply of them easy to gather and transport form a critical part of storm readiness.

Will a hurricane really happen?

When it comes to hurricanes, especially in new England, no one holds the magic crystal ball. As a science, meteorology can look at data and predict based on measurements and knowledge - but science doesn't hold definitive foresight no matter how much we wish it did. More named storms in a season offer more chances for "The Big One" to form and head to Cape Cod -but nothing can predict that any given storm will or won't come ashore on the Cape. However, more storms increase the likelihood that one could.

Which is why all the preparedness matters, because, as Reilly say, "It only takes one."